What it found
They modeled the trade-off between how much territory a pass gains and how likely it is to complete. Diagonal passes between the defensive and midfield lines came out as the sweet spot — genuinely progressive but still reasonable to complete. And the longest, riskiest passes still graded well, because when you lose the ball deep in the opponent's half the danger to you is low. The turnovers that really hurt are the ones in the middle.
Why this is really a psychology point for me
Here is where it lands for a youth coach. If I want brave players who break lines, I cannot punish every failed line-breaking pass, because bravery and fear cannot live in the same player. The data basically gives me permission to build an environment where trying the progressive diagonal is encouraged, especially in the right areas, and where a failed one high up the pitch is treated as a good decision that did not come off. High standards and psychological safety at the same time — this is a concrete place to hold both.