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Survival of the Fittest, or Survival of Talent?

Footblogball on the relative age effect — and why academies keep cutting their best long-term players.

Cam Jolley

Cam Jolley

Co-Founder & Academy Coach, Coach Central

The relative age effect is one of the most well-documented biases in youth sport and one of the most ignored — we keep confusing 'born earlier and bigger' with 'better,' and cutting the late-maturing kids who'd have been our best players in five years.

The bias, in numbers

Selection systems mistake physical maturity for talent. The piece cites a Dutch study of over ten thousand players where players born in the first months of the cut-off dominated the rosters and the late-born were massively underrepresented — because the older, bigger kids look better, and coaches, parents, and even the kids themselves reinforce the illusion. Development is non-linear, but selection acts like it's a straight line, so we gamble on the wrong players and rarely let the de-selected ones back in.

How I refuse to coach this way

This is personal to me because I believe every player, including the bottom of the roster today, should be treated like they could become great — and the late developer is the perfect example of why. The kid who's small and behind physically but reads the game well might be the best player I have at eighteen. So I try to separate what's maturation from what's actual ability, I protect the late bloomers instead of cutting them, and I hold to the idea of keeping as many players as possible, as long as possible. If I coach for the long game, I stop throwing away my future best players because they were young for their age.

Look at your roster's birth dates and body types. Identify your youngest, least physically mature player and commit to developing them as if they'll be your best in five years — because they might be.

  • The relative age effect: earlier-born, more mature kids get mistaken for more talented ones.
  • Development is non-linear, but early selection treats it as a straight line — cutting future stars.
  • Separate maturation from ability, protect late bloomers, and keep as many players as long as possible.

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